Spatio-temporal modeling of the African swine fever epidemic in the Russian Federation, 2007–2012

Publication date: October 2014 Source:Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology, Volume 11 Author(s): F.I. Korennoy , V.M. Gulenkin , J.B. Malone , C.N. Mores , S.A. Dudnikov , M.A. Stevenson In 2007 African swine fever (ASF) entered Georgia and in the same year the disease entered the Russian Federation. From 2007 to 2012 ASF spread throughout the southern region of the Russian Federation. At the same time several cases of ASF were detected in the central and northern regions of the Russian Federation, forming a northern cluster of outbreaks in 2011. This northern cluster is of concern because of its proximity to mainland Europe. The aim of this study was to use details of recorded ASF outbreaks and human and swine population details to estimate the spatial distribution of ASF risk in the southern region of the European part of the Russian Federation. Our model of ASF risk was comprised of two components. The first was an estimate of ASF suitability scores calculated using maximum entropy methods. The second was an estimate of ASF risk as a function of Euclidean distance from index cases. An exponential distribution fitted to a frequency histogram of the Euclidean distance between consecutive ASF cases had a mean value of 156km, a distance greater than the surveillance zone radius of 100–150km stated in the ASF control regulations for the Russian Federation. We show that the spatial and temporal risk of ASF expansion is related to the suitability of the area of po...
Source: Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology - Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research