The Impact of Screening and Partner Notification on Chlamydia in the United States, 2000-2015: Evaluation of Epidemiologic Trends Using a Pair-Formation Transmission Model.

In this study, we calibrated a novel sex- and age-stratified pair-formation transmission model of chlamydial infection to epidemiological data in the United States for 2000-2015. We used sex- and age-specific prevalence estimates from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys, case report data from national chlamydia surveillance, and survey data from the Youth Risk Behavior Survey on the proportion of sexually active 15-18 year-old population. We were able to reconcile national prevalence estimates and case report data by allowing for changes over time in screening coverage and reporting completeness. In retrospective analysis, we found that in the absence of chlamydia screening and partner notification, chlamydia prevalence would be approximately twice as great in 2015 as currently estimated levels. Although chlamydia screening and partner notification were both found to reduce chlamydia burden, the relative magnitude of their estimated impact varied in our sensitivity analyses. The variation in the model predictions highlights the need for further data collection and research to improve our understanding of the natural history of chlamydia and the pathways through which prevention strategies affect transmission dynamics. PMID: 30608525 [PubMed - as supplied by publisher]
Source: Am J Epidemiol - Category: Epidemiology Authors: Tags: Am J Epidemiol Source Type: research