Lifetime trajectory simulation of chronic disease progression and comorbidity development

This study aims to gain insights of comorbidity development by simulating the lifetime trajectory of disease progression from single chronic disease to comorbidity.MethodsEight health states spanning from no chronic condition to comorbidity are considered in this study. Disease progression network is constructed based on the seven-year retrospective data of around 700,000 residents living in Singapore central region. Microsimulation is applied to simulate the process of aging and disease progression of a synthetic new-born cohort for the entire lifetime.ResultsAmong the 40 unique trajectories observed from the simulation, the top 10 trajectories covers 60% of the cohort. Timespan of most trajectories from birth to death is 80 years. Most people progress to at risk at late 30s, develop the first chronic condition at 50s or 60s, and then progress to complications at 70s. It is also observed that the earlier one person develops chronic conditions, the more life-year-lost is incurred.DiscussionThe lifetime disease progression trajectory constructed for each person in the cohort describes how a person starts healthy, becomes at risk, then progresses to one or more chronic conditions, and finally deteriorates to various complications over the years. This study may help us have a better understanding of chronic disease progression and comorbidity development, hence add values to chronic disease prevention and management.Graphical abstractMicrosimulation is applied to simulate the li...
Source: Journal of Biomedical Informatics - Category: Information Technology Source Type: research