Nowcasting of population alcohol-related harms using novel Bayesian timeseries methods and synthetic controls

Conclusions This ‘proof-of-principle’ study showed that this novel modelling framework can provide accurate forecasts of temporal trends in local alcohol-related hospital admissions in England for all lower tier local authorities and may well be useful for future policy making at the local, regional and national level. Future work will include detailed assessment of the precision of these estimates, optimization of model specifications including the possibility of including additional modifiable factors, and will also explore applications to other scenarios, including non-alcohol related outcomes.
Source: Alcohol Research UK - Category: Addiction Authors: Tags: Alcohol Insights Source Type: news