Dynamics of the 2004 avian influenza H5N1 outbreak in Thailand: the role of duck farming, sequential model fitting and control

Publication date: Available online 19 September 2018Source: Preventive Veterinary MedicineAuthor(s): Renata Retkute, Chris P. Jewell, Thomas P. Van Boeckel, Geli Zhang, Xiangming Xiao, Weerapong Thanapongtharm, Matt Keeling, Marius Gilbert, Michael J. TildesleyAbstractThe Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) subtype H5N1 virus persists in many countries and has been circulating in poultry, wild birds. In addition, the virus has emerged in other species and frequent zoonotic spillover events indicate that there remains a significant risk to human health. It is crucial to understand the dynamics of the disease in the poultry industry to develop a more comprehensive knowledge of the risks of transmission and to establish a better distribution of resources when implementing control. In this paper, we develop a set of mathematical models that simulate the spread of HPAI H5N1 in the poultry industry in Thailand, utilising data from the 2004 epidemic. The model that incorporates the intensity of duck farming when assessing transmision risk provides the best fit to the spatiotemporal characteristics of the observed outbreak, implying that intensive duck farming drives transmission of HPAI in Thailand. We also extend our models using a sequential model fitting approach to explore the ability of the models to be used in “real time” during novel disease outbreaks. We conclude that, whilst predictions of epidemic size are estimated poorly in the early stages of disease ou...
Source: Preventive Veterinary Medicine - Category: Veterinary Research Source Type: research

Related Links:

Passengers from Wuhan, China, will be screened at J.F.K. beginning Friday night, and in San Francisco and Los Angeles starting on Saturday.
Source: NYT Health - Category: Consumer Health News Authors: Tags: Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Los Angeles (Calif) San Francisco (Calif) Wuhan (China) New York City Viruses Epidemics Respiratory Diseases Airport Security Pneumonia Kennedy International Airport Source Type: news
Publication date: Available online 16 January 2020Source: The Brazilian Journal of Infectious DiseasesAuthor(s): Veronica Elizabeth Mata, Sonia Regina Lambert Passos, Maria Angelica Borges dos Santos, Sibelle Nogueira Buonora, Carlos Augusto Ferreira de Andrade, Monique da Rocha Queiroz Lima, Betina Moreira Costa, Yara Hahr Marques HökerbergAbstractBackgroundAlthough performance of rapid immunochromatographic tests (RITs) for dengue virus (DENV) serotypes 1, 2 and 3 is relatively settled, evidence on accuracy of RITs for DENV-4 are based on studies with small sample sizes and with discrepant results.ObjectivesTo asses...
Source: The Brazilian Journal of Infectious Diseases - Category: Infectious Diseases Source Type: research
ConclusionsThe costs of healthcare-associated infection outbreaks of antimicrobial-resistant bacteria can be significant. The productivity loss was much greater than the containment costs. Therefore, hospitals should meet the costs for prevention of these outbreaks.
Source: American Journal of Infection Control - Category: Infectious Diseases Source Type: research
The recent outbreak of lung disease linked to vaping appears to be most prevalent...Read more on AuntMinnie.comRelated Reading: CDC confirms vitamin E acetate in vaping cases Vaping-related lung injury cases trending downward CT links vaping to ARDS in new case studies Imaging experts give insight on vaping-related lung injury Video from RSNA 2019: Vaping and lung disease
Source: AuntMinnie.com Headlines - Category: Radiology Source Type: news
AbstractIn recent decades, exceeding 60% of infectious cases in human beings are originated from pathogenic agents related to feral or companion animals. This figure continues to swiftly increase due to excessive exposure between human and contaminated hosts by means of applying unhygienic farming practices throughout society. In Asia countries —renowned for lax regulation towards animal-trading markets—have experienced tremendous outbreaks of zoonotic diseases every year. Meanwhile, various epidemic surges were first reported in the residential area of China—one of the largest distributor of all animal p...
Source: European Journal of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases - Category: Microbiology Source Type: research
ahesh Influenza A viruses (IAVs) are a major cause of respiratory illness and are responsible for yearly epidemics associated with more than 500,000 annual deaths globally. Novel IAVs may cause pandemic outbreaks and zoonotic infections with, for example, highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) of the H5N1 and H7N9 subtypes, which pose a threat to public health. Treatment options are limited and emergence of strains resistant to antiviral drugs jeopardize this even further. Like all viruses, IAVs depend on host factors for every step of the virus replication cycle. Host kinases link multiple signaling pathways ...
Source: Viruses - Category: Virology Authors: Tags: Review Source Type: research
Since March 2013, when the avian influenza A(H7N9) virus infection was first detected in humans, a total of 1567 laboratory-confirmed human cases, including at least 615 deaths1, have been reported to WHO (Figure 1) in accordance with the International Health Regulations (2005). In the latest wave (the 6th wave since Oct 2017), only three human cases have been detected; meanwhile there have been generally fewer A(H7N9) virus detections in poultry and environment samples, according to various reports from mainland China and China, Hong Kong SAR. WHO has been monitoring the situation, and conducting risk assessments2 through...
Source: WHO Avian Influenza - Category: Infectious Diseases Tags: avian influenza [subject], bird flu, avian flu, fowl plague, influenza in birds, avian bird flu, h5n1, disease outbreaks [subject], outbreak, outbreaks, epidemics, pandemic, disease control, influenza [subject], flu, seasonal influenza, pandemic influenza Source Type: news
Summary Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) is classified by the World Organization for Animal Health as one of the notifiable diseases. Its occurrence is associated with severe socio‐economic impacts and is also zoonotic. Bangladesh HPAI epidemic data for the period between 2007 and 2013 were obtained and split into epidemic waves based on the time lag between outbreaks. By assuming the number of newly infected farms to be binomially distributed, we fit a Generalized Linear Model to the data to estimate between‐farm transmission rates (β). These parameters are then used together with the calculated infectiou...
Source: Transboundary and Emerging Diseases - Category: Veterinary Research Authors: Tags: ORIGINAL ARTICLE Source Type: research
Publication date: Available online 21 February 2017 Source:Epidemics Author(s): Edward M. Hill, Thomas House, Madhur S. Dhingra, Wantanee Kalpravidh, Subhash Morzaria, Muzaffar G. Osmani, Mat Yamage, Xiangming Xiao, Marius Gilbert, Michael J. Tildesley Highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 remains a persistent public health threat, capable of causing infection in humans with a high mortality rate while simultaneously negatively impacting the livestock industry. A central question is to determine regions that are likely sources of newly emerging influenza strains with pandemic causing potential. A suitable candidate is Ba...
Source: Epidemics - Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research
Abstract Avian influenza is a zoonotic disease caused by the transmission of the avian influenza A virus, such as H5N1 and H7N9, from birds to humans. The avian influenza A H5N1 virus has caused more than 500 human infections worldwide with nearly a 60% death rate since it was first reported in Hong Kong in 1997. The four outbreaks of the avian influenza A H7N9 in China from March 2013 to June 2016 have resulted in 580 human cases including 202 deaths with a death rate of nearly 35%. In this paper, we construct two avian influenza bird-to-human transmission models with different growth laws of the avian population...
Source: Mathematical Biosciences - Category: Statistics Authors: Tags: Math Biosci Source Type: research
More News: Bird Flu | Epidemics | Epidemiology | H5N1 | Influenza | Information Technology | Outbreaks | Thailand Health | Veterinary Research | Zoonoses