Dynamics of the 2004 avian influenza H5N1 outbreak in Thailand: the role of duck farming, sequential model fitting and control

Publication date: Available online 19 September 2018Source: Preventive Veterinary MedicineAuthor(s): Renata Retkute, Chris P. Jewell, Thomas P. Van Boeckel, Geli Zhang, Xiangming Xiao, Weerapong Thanapongtharm, Matt Keeling, Marius Gilbert, Michael J. TildesleyAbstractThe Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) subtype H5N1 virus persists in many countries and has been circulating in poultry, wild birds. In addition, the virus has emerged in other species and frequent zoonotic spillover events indicate that there remains a significant risk to human health. It is crucial to understand the dynamics of the disease in the poultry industry to develop a more comprehensive knowledge of the risks of transmission and to establish a better distribution of resources when implementing control. In this paper, we develop a set of mathematical models that simulate the spread of HPAI H5N1 in the poultry industry in Thailand, utilising data from the 2004 epidemic. The model that incorporates the intensity of duck farming when assessing transmision risk provides the best fit to the spatiotemporal characteristics of the observed outbreak, implying that intensive duck farming drives transmission of HPAI in Thailand. We also extend our models using a sequential model fitting approach to explore the ability of the models to be used in “real time” during novel disease outbreaks. We conclude that, whilst predictions of epidemic size are estimated poorly in the early stages of disease ou...
Source: Preventive Veterinary Medicine - Category: Veterinary Research Source Type: research

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Authors: Arab JP, Dirchwolf M, Álvares-da-Silva MR, Barrera F, Benítez C, Castellanos-Fernandez M, Castro-Narro G, Chavez-Tapia N, Chiodi D, Cotrim H, Cusi K, de Oliveira CPMS, Díaz J, Fassio E, Gerona S, Girala M, Hernandez N, Marciano S, Masson W, Mendez-Sanchez N, Leite N, Lozano A, Padilla M, Panduro A, Paraná R, Parise E, Perez M, Poniachik J, Restrepo JC, Ruf A, Silva M, Tagle M, Tapias M, Torres K, Vilar-Gomez E, Costa Gil JE, Gadano A, Arrese M Abstract Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) currently represents an epidemic worldwide. NAFLD is the most frequently diagnosed chr...
Source: Annals of Hepatology - Category: Gastroenterology Tags: Ann Hepatol Source Type: research
Publication date: Available online 9 October 2020Source: The Journal of Allergy and Clinical Immunology: In PracticeAuthor(s): Manuel Jorge Rial, Marcela Valverde, Victoria del Pozo, Francisco Javier González-Barcala, Carlos Martínez-Rivera, Xavier Muñoz, José María Olaguibel, Vicente Plaza, Elena Curto, Santiago Quirce, Pilar Barranco, Javier Domínguez-Ortega, Joaquin Mullol, César Picado, Antonio Valero, Irina Bobolea, Ebymar Arismendi, Paula Ribó, Joaquín Sastre
Source: The Journal of Allergy and Clinical Immunology: In Practice - Category: Allergy & Immunology Source Type: research
Trump plans in-person rally on Monday as next presidential debate cancelled; Europe records 100,000 daily cases for first time; Canada at ‘tipping point’. Follow latest updatesEurope: Spain declares emergency in Madrid as Berlin emerges as hotspotUK workers to get two-thirds of wages if firms told to shutAustralia: Is Victoria ready to come out of lockdown?US presidential debate cancelled – live updatesSee all our coronavirus coverage5.42amBSTMy colleagueLuke Henriques-Gomes has this story giving you a summary of the main Covid-19 stories from Australia.A main point of the day has beenVictoria ’s pr...
Source: Guardian Unlimited Science - Category: Science Authors: Tags: Coronavirus outbreak Infectious diseases Science World news France Trump administration Donald Trump Source Type: news
Publication date: Available online 8 October 2020Source: Microbes and InfectionAuthor(s): Keisuke Nishioka, Michihito Kyo, Takaaki Nakaya, Nobuaki Shime
Source: Microbes and Infection - Category: Infectious Diseases Source Type: research
In this study, we present a new method for the simultaneous detection of CXCR4, mesodermal markers and NCCs markers during chicken embryo developmental stages HH18 –HH25 by combining double whole-mount in situ hybridization (ISH) and immunostaining on floating vibratome sections. The simultaneous detection of CXCR4 and markers for the mesodermal and neural crest cells in multiple labelling allowed us to compare complex gene expression patterns and it could b e easily used for a wide range of gene expression pattern analyses of other chicken embryonic tissues. All steps of the procedure, including the preparation of p...
Source: Histochemistry and Cell Biology - Category: Biomedical Science Source Type: research
AbstractIn recent decades, exceeding 60% of infectious cases in human beings are originated from pathogenic agents related to feral or companion animals. This figure continues to swiftly increase due to excessive exposure between human and contaminated hosts by means of applying unhygienic farming practices throughout society. In Asia countries —renowned for lax regulation towards animal-trading markets—have experienced tremendous outbreaks of zoonotic diseases every year. Meanwhile, various epidemic surges were first reported in the residential area of China—one of the largest distributor of all animal p...
Source: European Journal of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases - Category: Microbiology Source Type: research
ahesh Influenza A viruses (IAVs) are a major cause of respiratory illness and are responsible for yearly epidemics associated with more than 500,000 annual deaths globally. Novel IAVs may cause pandemic outbreaks and zoonotic infections with, for example, highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) of the H5N1 and H7N9 subtypes, which pose a threat to public health. Treatment options are limited and emergence of strains resistant to antiviral drugs jeopardize this even further. Like all viruses, IAVs depend on host factors for every step of the virus replication cycle. Host kinases link multiple signaling pathways ...
Source: Viruses - Category: Virology Authors: Tags: Review Source Type: research
Since March 2013, when the avian influenza A(H7N9) virus infection was first detected in humans, a total of 1567 laboratory-confirmed human cases, including at least 615 deaths1, have been reported to WHO (Figure 1) in accordance with the International Health Regulations (2005). In the latest wave (the 6th wave since Oct 2017), only three human cases have been detected; meanwhile there have been generally fewer A(H7N9) virus detections in poultry and environment samples, according to various reports from mainland China and China, Hong Kong SAR. WHO has been monitoring the situation, and conducting risk assessments2 through...
Source: WHO Avian Influenza - Category: Infectious Diseases Tags: avian influenza [subject], bird flu, avian flu, fowl plague, influenza in birds, avian bird flu, h5n1, disease outbreaks [subject], outbreak, outbreaks, epidemics, pandemic, disease control, influenza [subject], flu, seasonal influenza, pandemic influenza Source Type: news
Summary Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) is classified by the World Organization for Animal Health as one of the notifiable diseases. Its occurrence is associated with severe socio‐economic impacts and is also zoonotic. Bangladesh HPAI epidemic data for the period between 2007 and 2013 were obtained and split into epidemic waves based on the time lag between outbreaks. By assuming the number of newly infected farms to be binomially distributed, we fit a Generalized Linear Model to the data to estimate between‐farm transmission rates (β). These parameters are then used together with the calculated infectiou...
Source: Transboundary and Emerging Diseases - Category: Veterinary Research Authors: Tags: ORIGINAL ARTICLE Source Type: research
Publication date: Available online 21 February 2017 Source:Epidemics Author(s): Edward M. Hill, Thomas House, Madhur S. Dhingra, Wantanee Kalpravidh, Subhash Morzaria, Muzaffar G. Osmani, Mat Yamage, Xiangming Xiao, Marius Gilbert, Michael J. Tildesley Highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 remains a persistent public health threat, capable of causing infection in humans with a high mortality rate while simultaneously negatively impacting the livestock industry. A central question is to determine regions that are likely sources of newly emerging influenza strains with pandemic causing potential. A suitable candidate is Ba...
Source: Epidemics - Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research
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