Development and validation of a cardiovascular disease risk-prediction model using population health surveys: the Cardiovascular Disease Population Risk Tool (CVDPoRT).

Development and validation of a cardiovascular disease risk-prediction model using population health surveys: the Cardiovascular Disease Population Risk Tool (CVDPoRT). CMAJ. 2018 Jul 23;190(29):E871-E882 Authors: Manuel DG, Tuna M, Bennett C, Hennessy D, Rosella L, Sanmartin C, Tu JV, Perez R, Fisher S, Taljaard M Abstract BACKGROUND: Routinely collected data from large population health surveys linked to chronic disease outcomes create an opportunity to develop more complex risk-prediction algorithms. We developed a predictive algorithm to estimate 5-year risk of incident cardiovascular disease in the community setting. METHODS: We derived the Cardiovascular Disease Population Risk Tool (CVDPoRT) using prospectively collected data from Ontario respondents of the Canadian Community Health Surveys, representing 98% of the Ontario population (survey years 2001 to 2007; follow-up from 2001 to 2012) linked to hospital admission and vital statistics databases. Predictors included body mass index, hypertension, diabetes, and multiple behavioural, demographic and general health risk factors. The primary outcome was the first major cardiovascular event resulting in hospital admission or death. Death from a noncardiovascular cause was considered a competing risk. RESULTS: We included 104 219 respondents aged 20 to 105 years. There were 3709 cardiovascular events and 818 478 person-years follow-up in the combined derivation an...
Source: cmaj - Category: General Medicine Authors: Tags: CMAJ Source Type: research