Childhood predictors of lung function trajectories and future COPD risk: a prospective cohort study from the first to the sixth decade of life

Publication date: July 2018Source: The Lancet Respiratory Medicine, Volume 6, Issue 7Author(s): Dinh S Bui, Caroline J Lodge, John A Burgess, Adrian J Lowe, Jennifer Perret, Minh Q Bui, Gayan Bowatte, Lyle Gurrin, David P Johns, Bruce R Thompson, Garun S Hamilton, Peter A Frith, Alan L James, Paul S Thomas, Deborah Jarvis, Cecilie Svanes, Melissa Russell, Stephen C Morrison, Iain Feather, Katrina J AllenSummaryBackgroundLifetime lung function is related to quality of life and longevity. Over the lifespan, individuals follow different lung function trajectories. Identification of these trajectories, their determinants, and outcomes is important, but no study has done this beyond the fourth decade.MethodsWe used six waves of the Tasmanian Longitudinal Health Study (TAHS) to model lung function trajectories measured at 7, 13, 18, 45, 50, and 53 years. We analysed pre-bronchodilator FEV1 z-scores at the six timepoints using group-based trajectory modelling to identify distinct subgroups of individuals whose measurements followed a similar pattern over time. We related the trajectories identified to childhood factors and risk of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) using logistic regression, and estimated population-attributable fractions of COPD.FindingsOf the 8583 participants in the original cohort, 2438 had at least two waves of lung function data at age 7 years and 53 years and comprised the study population. We identified six trajectories: early below average, accele...
Source: The Lancet Respiratory Medicine - Category: Respiratory Medicine Source Type: research