Robust qualitative estimation of time-varying contact rates in uncertain epidemics

Publication date: Available online 15 March 2018Source: EpidemicsAuthor(s): Marco Tulio Angulo, Jorge X. Velasco-HernandezAbstractWe will inevitably face new epidemics where the lack of long time-series data and the uncertainty about the outbreak dynamics make difficult to obtain quantitative predictions. Here we present an algorithm to qualitatively infer time-varying contact rates from short time-series data, letting us predict the start, relative magnitude and decline of epidemic outbreaks. Using real time-series data of measles, dengue, and the current zika outbreak, we demonstrate our algorithm can outperform existing algorithms based on estimating reproductive numbers.

Source: Epidemics - July 5, 2018 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research