Urbanization prolongs hantavirus epidemics in cities.

Urbanization prolongs hantavirus epidemics in cities.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2018 Apr 17;:
Authors: Tian H, Hu S, Cazelles B, Chowell G, Gao L, Laine M, Li Y, Yang H, Li Y, Yang Q, Tong X, Huang R, Bjornstad ON, Xiao H, Stenseth NC
Abstract
Urbanization and rural-urban migration are two factors driving global patterns of disease and mortality. There is significant concern about their potential impact on disease burden and the effectiveness of current control approaches. Few attempts have been made to increase our understanding of the relationship between urbanization and disease dynamics, although it is generally believed that urban living has contributed to reductions in communicable disease burden in industrialized countries. To investigate this relationship, we carried out spatiotemporal analyses using a 48-year-long dataset of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome incidence (HFRS; mainly caused by two serotypes of hantavirus in China: Hantaan virus and Seoul virus) and population movements in an important endemic area of south China during the period 1963-2010. Our findings indicate that epidemics coincide with urbanization, geographic expansion, and migrant movement over time. We found a biphasic inverted U-shaped relationship between HFRS incidence and urbanization, with various endemic turning points associated with economic growth rates in cities. Our results revealed the interrelatedness of urbanization, migration, and ha...

Source: Rural Remote Health - April 17, 2018 Category: Rural Health Authors: Tian H, Hu S, Cazelles B, Chowell G, Gao L, Laine M, Li Y, Yang H, Li Y, Yang Q, Tong X, Huang R, Bjornstad ON, Xiao H, Stenseth NC Tags: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A Source Type: research