Potential effects of climate change on the risk of accidents with poisonous species of the genus Tityus (Scorpiones, Buthidae) in Argentina

Publication date: Available online 6 April 2018 Source:Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology Author(s): Pablo Ariel Martinez, Mayane Alves Andrade, Claudio Juan Bidau Knowing the factors that affect the geographic distribution of species allows inferring their potential localization. Human beings, through the expansion of their own distribution area and their contribution to climate alteration have modified the geographic distribution of other biological species. Consequently, the temporal pattern of co-occurrence of human beings and venomous species (scorpions, spiders, snakes) is changing. Thus, the temporal pattern of areas with risk of accidents with such species tends to become dynamic in time. The aim of this work was to analyze the areas of occurrence of species of Tityus in Argentina and assess the impact of global climate change on their area of distribution by the construction of risk maps. Using data of occurrence of the species and climatic variables, we constructed models of species distribution (SMDs) under current and future climatic conditions. We also created maps that allow the detection of temporal shifts in the distribution patterns of each Tityus species. Finally, we developed risk maps for the analyzed species. Our results predict that climate change will have an impact on the distribution of Tityus species which will clearly expand to more southern latitudes, with the exception of T. argentinus. T. bahiensis, widely distributed in Brazil, showed...
Source: Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology - Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research