General Purpose Technologies as an emergent property

Publication date: April 2018 Source:Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 129 Author(s): Vladimir Korzinov, Ivan Savin We address the emergence of General Purpose Technologies (GPTs), the process which has been largely neglected in the literature on technological change. We do this from a novel network-based perspective emphasizing the relations between technologies and how combinations of those technologies form final goods. Transforming GPT emergence into a question of technology adoption we demonstrate that GPTs are more likely to emerge when certain conditions with regard to the following techno-economic factors are met: knowledge diffusion, concentration of R&D efforts and variation in the rank of expected returns on products. Focusing solely on a discovery process our model demonstrates an impressive fit to real data reproducing a number of stylised facts including technological lock-ins, S-shaped curves of technology adoption, temporal clustering of innovations and distinct features of empirical networks of relatedness among technologies and products.

Source: Technological Forecasting and Social Change - March 21, 2018 Category: Science Source Type: research