Prediction of late seizures after ischaemic stroke with a novel prognostic model (the SeLECT score): a multivariable prediction model development and validation study

Publication date: February 2018 Source:The Lancet Neurology, Volume 17, Issue 2 Author(s): Marian Galovic, Nico Döhler, Barbara Erdélyi-Canavese, Ansgar Felbecker, Philip Siebel, Julian Conrad, Stefan Evers, Michael Winklehner, Tim J von Oertzen, Hans-Peter Haring, Anna Serafini, Giorgia Gregoraci, Mariarosaria Valente, Francesco Janes, Gian Luigi Gigli, Mark R Keezer, John S Duncan, Josemir W Sander, Matthias J Koepp, Barbara Tettenborn Background Stroke is one of the leading causes of acquired epilepsy in adults. An instrument to predict whether people are at high risk of developing post-stroke seizures is not available. We aimed to develop and validate a prognostic model of late (>7 days) seizures after ischaemic stroke. Methods In this multivariable prediction model development and validation study, we developed the SeLECT score based on five clinical predictors in 1200 participants who had an ischaemic stroke in Switzerland using backward elimination of a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model. We externally validated this score in 1169 participants from three independent international cohorts in Austria, Germany, and Italy, and assessed its performance with the concordance statistic and calibration plots. Findings Data were complete for 99·2% of the predictors (99·2% for Switzerland, 100% for Austria, 97% for Germany, and 99·7% for Italy) and 100% of the outcome parameters. Overall, the risk of late seizures was 4% (95% CI 4–5...
Source: The Lancet Neurology - Category: Neurology Source Type: research