Epidemic forecasts as a tool for public health: interpretation and (re)calibration.

CONCLUSIONS: Collaborative engagement with public health practitioners in model development improved understanding of the context and limitations of emerging surveillance data. Incorporation of these insights in a quantitative model resulted in more robust estimates of disease activity for public health use. Implications for public health: In addition to predicting future disease trends, forecasting methods can quantify the impact of delays in data availability and variable reporting practice on the accuracy of current epidemic assessment. Such evidence supports investment in systems capacity. PMID: 29281169 [PubMed - as supplied by publisher]
Source: Australian and New Zealand Journal of Public Health - Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Tags: Aust N Z J Public Health Source Type: research