Why It ’s So Hard to Predict Exactly Where Wildfires Will Strike

After at least 17 people were killed and more than 2,000 structures were destroyed by fast-moving wildfires raging across northern California this week, some are wondering: Is there a way to better predict wildfires and warn residents before they start? Unfortunately, experts say the nature of wildfires makes it almost impossible to create an accurate early-warning system like those that exist for other natural disasters, including hurricanes and tornadoes. “With wildfires, there is nothing typically natural that would give an indication ahead of time that a fire is going to spark,” Daniel Berlant, assistant deputy director for Cal Fire, told TIME. “Unlike a hurricane where you’re looking at weather forecasts to make predictions, we don’t have that luxury.” That’s in part because more than 90% of wildfires are triggered by human activity, whereas tornadoes and hurricanes are the direct result of certain atmospheric conditions. (The other 10% of wildfires are sparked by lightning strikes.) Because it’s impossible to track every backpacker starting a campfire or teenager lighting off fireworks, predicting human-caused wildfires is an impossibility. Nevertheless, forecasters can and do issue warnings when conditions are ripe for wildfires to begin. Dry climates, strong winds and lightning in the forecast can all make wildfires more likely to occur. During those weather conditions, the National Weather Service will issue “Red...
Source: TIME.com: Top Science and Health Stories - Category: Consumer Health News Authors: Tags: Uncategorized California onetime weather Source Type: news