Inference and forecast of H7N9 influenza in China, 2013 to 2015.

Inference and forecast of H7N9 influenza in China, 2013 to 2015. Euro Surveill. 2017 Feb 16;22(7): Authors: Li R, Bai Y, Heaney A, Kandula S, Cai J, Zhao X, Xu B, Shaman J Abstract The recent emergence of A(H7N9) avian influenza poses a significant challenge to public health in China and around the world; however, understanding of the transmission dynamics and progression of influenza A(H7N9) infection in domestic poultry, as well as spillover transmission to humans, remains limited. Here, we develop a mathematical model-Bayesian inference system which combines a simple epidemic model and data assimilation method, and use it in conjunction with data on observed human influenza A(H7N9) cases from 19 February 2013 to 19 September 2015 to estimate key epidemiological parameters and to forecast infection in both poultry and humans. Our findings indicate a high outbreak attack rate of 33% among poultry but a low rate of chicken-to-human spillover transmission. In addition, we generated accurate forecasts of the peak timing and magnitude of human influenza A(H7N9) cases. This work demonstrates that transmission dynamics within an avian reservoir can be estimated and that real-time forecast of spillover avian influenza in humans is possible. PMID: 28230525 [PubMed - in process]
Source: Euro Surveill - Category: Infectious Diseases Authors: Tags: Euro Surveill Source Type: research

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Source: Expert Review of Respiratory Medicine - Category: Respiratory Medicine Tags: Expert Rev Respir Med Source Type: research
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Source: Journal of Infection - Category: Infectious Diseases Authors: Tags: Letter to the Editor Source Type: research
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Source: Videocast - All Events - Category: General Medicine Tags: Upcoming Events Source Type: video
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Source: Comparative immunology, microbiology and infectious diseases. - Category: Allergy & Immunology Authors: Tags: Comp Immunol Microbiol Infect Dis Source Type: research
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Source: European Journal of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases - Category: Microbiology Source Type: research
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Source: Journal of Infection - Category: Infectious Diseases Authors: Tags: Letter to the Editor Source Type: research
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Source: Frontiers in cellular and infection microbiology - Category: Microbiology Source Type: research
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Source: International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health - Category: Environmental Health Authors: Tags: Article Source Type: research
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Source: Veterinary Clinics of North America: Small Animal Practice - Category: Veterinary Research Authors: Source Type: research
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Source: Epidemics - Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research
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