Robust inferences on climate change patterns of precipitation extremes in the Iberian Peninsula

Publication date: Available online 1 June 2016 Source:Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A/B/C Author(s): Paulo de Melo-Gonçalves, Alfredo Rocha, João Santos This work presents a methodology to make statistical significant and robust inferences on climate change from an ensemble of model simulations. This methodology is used to assess climate change projections of the Iberian daily-total precipitation for a near-future (2021 – 2050) and a distant-future (2069 – 2098) climates, relatively to a reference past climate (1961 – 1990). Climate changes of precipitation spatial patterns are estimated for annual and seasonal values of: (i) total amount of precipitation (PRCTOT), (ii) maximum number of consecutive dry days (CDD), (iii) maximum of total amount of 5-consecutive wet days (Rx5day), and (iv) percentage of total precipitation occurred in days with precipitation above the 95 t h percentile of the reference climate (R95T). Daily-total data were obtained from the multi-model ensemble of fifteen Regional Climate Model simulations provided by the European project ENSEMBLES. These regional models were driven by boundary conditions imposed by Global Climate Models that ran under the 20C3M conditions from 1961 to 2000, and under the A1B scenario, from 2001 to 2100, defined by the Special Report on Emission Scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Non-parametric statistical methods are used for significant climate change detection: line...
Source: Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts ABC - Category: Science Source Type: research