On the Seasonal Occurrence and Abundance of the Zika Virus Vector Mosquito Aedes Aegypti in the Contiguous United States

This study has numerous limitations related to the model simulations. We do not account for vector control practices in the simulations and thus abundance may be overestimated (as suggested during the off-peak months in Miami and Phoenix in the validation). There is incomplete understanding of how temperature may limit population dynamics at the geographic margins of Ae. aegypti survival68, where sensitivity to poorly-constrained meteorological thresholds may hamper model performance. For example, because knowledge of egg survival during winter in marginal areas is limited68, we artificially introduce eggs into the simulations each month, which keeps eggs from becoming extinct in cities that have seasonal Ae. aegypti populations, but likely causes egg availability/viability to be overestimated. Cryptic habitats that are not represented in models may enhance environmental suitability during winter; an overwintering Ae. aegypti population was recently found in Washington, D.C.38, suggesting that Aedes mosquitoes are adept at ovipositing in semi-concealed places that stay relatively warm year-round (e.g., subterranean habitats). Likewise, during the warm season it is likely that mosquitoes are adept at finding suitable microclimates in sheltered areas that aren’t explicitly accounted for in the models29, particularly in challenging environments such as desert cities where high temperatures and low humidity may otherwise inhibit mosquito survival. The influence of humidity in t...
Source: PLOS Currents Outbreaks - Category: Epidemiology Authors: Source Type: research